Analysis of the socio-economic environment in terms of family policy priorities and testing of impacts on macroeconomic developments in the national economy and on model family types across their life cycle using a mathematical model employing MS Excel and the GAMS System
The project focuses on the development and advancement of a comprehensive optimization–balancing model for analysing the socio-economic and macroeconomic impacts of family policy measures. Its primary objective is to establish an integrated tool capable of simulating and evaluating the effects of proposed interventions on different types of families across their life cycle, as well as on public budgets—both in terms of the direct implications of the tax-benefit system and the indirect growth effects and changes in the macroeconomic environment. The model will be based on the integration of analytical functionalities provided by MS Excel and the mathematical modelling system GAMS, and will be gradually expanded with key model modules derived from the analytical needs of the Family Policy Strategy 2024–2030 and the FIA methodology.
The project builds on the outcomes of the baseline systemic demographic model developed in 2024 and substantially extends the scope for evidence-based evaluation of public policies under the remit of the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs. It will utilise available statistical data (primarily from the Czech Statistical Office and EU-SILC) in combination with expert inputs, enabling both ex-ante and ex-post assessment of impacts on the socio-economic situation of households and on macroeconomic indicators. The project outputs will support, in particular: the annual evaluation of the Family Policy Strategy 2024–2030, the preparation of the 2026 Family Report, and decision-making processes in family and social policy. At the same time, the project will contribute to the advancement of know-how in the field of balancing–optimization modelling and may be further utilised for academic outputs and subsequent development projects.